Turkey Hatchery
Turkey Hatchery

ISSN: 1949-1964

Released January 13, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on January 1 Down 8 Percent from Last Year

Turkey eggs in incubators on January 1, 2021 in the United States totaled 
26.4 million, down 8 percent from January 1, 2020. Eggs in incubators were 
down 2 percent from the December 1, 2020 total of 27.0 million eggs.  

Poults Hatched During December Up 1 Percent from Last Year

Turkey poults hatched during December 2020 in the United States totaled 
22.8 million, up 1 percent from December 2019. Poults hatched were up 
2 percent from the November 2020 total of 22.2 million poults.  

Net Poults Placed During December Up 1 Percent from Last Year

The 20.4 million net poults placed during December 2020 in the United States 
were up 1 percent from the number placed during the same month a year 
earlier. Net poult placements were up 2 percent from the November 2020 total 
of 20.1 million.

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2019-2021
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :Eggs in incubators first of month: Percent of  :Poults hatched entire month: Percent of  
       Month      :---------------------------------:             :---------------------------:             
                  :   2019-2020    :   2020-2021    :previous year:  2019-2020  :  2020-2021  :previous year
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     ------ 1,000 eggs -----         percent       --- 1,000 poults ---        percent   
                  :                                                                                         
September ........:     26,666           25,990            97         22,464        21,840           97     
October ..........:     29,327           27,293            93         24,905        23,290           94     
November .........:     26,958           26,764            99         22,325        22,230          100     
December .........:     26,464           26,982           102         22,655        22,776          101     
January ..........:     28,820           26,430            92         23,879                                
February .........:     28,209                                        22,566                                
March ............:     27,980                                        23,729                                
April ............:     27,922                                        23,461                                
May ..............:     27,274                                        21,562                                
June .............:     28,540                                        23,940                                
July .............:     27,718                                        23,759                                
August ...........:     27,158                                        22,509                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2019-2021
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :        Total all breeds         : Percent of  :     Cumulative total      : Percent of  
       Month      :---------------------------------:             :---------------------------:             
                  :   2019-2020    :   2020-2021    :previous year:  2019-2020  :  2020-2021  :previous year
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     ----- 1,000 poults ----         percent       --- 1,000 poults ---        percent   
                  :                                                                                         
September ........:     20,125           19,141            95          20,125       19,141          95      
October ..........:     21,857           20,114            92          41,982       39,255          94      
November .........:     20,199           20,070            99          62,181       59,325          95      
December .........:     20,216           20,413           101          82,397       79,738          97      
January ..........:     21,414                                        103,811                               
February .........:     20,663                                        124,474                               
March ............:     21,741                                        146,215                               
April ............:     22,053                                        168,268                               
May ..............:     19,559                                        187,827                               
June .............:     22,764                                        210,591                               
July .............:     23,013                                        233,604                               
August ...........:     21,014                                        254,618                               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all 
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a 
list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to 
update their lists. Approximately 45 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted 
each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults 
annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as 
possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data 
reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is 
exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.

Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive 
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. 
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and 
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated 
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices 
prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and 
historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural 
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to 
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates 
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult 
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.

Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period 
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be 
available for slaughter during the calendar year.

Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected 
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey 
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery 
Production - Annual Summary report in April.

Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known 
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, 
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes 
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot 
be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in 
the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data 
for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the 
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. 
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past 
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final 
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the 
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 2.4 percent. This means 
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or 
below the current estimate of 26.4 million eggs by more than 2.4 percent. 
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 4.2 percent.

Reliability of January Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :  Root mean  : 90 percent  :     Difference between first and latest estimate     
                                   :square error : confidence  :        :        :        :             :             
                                   :             :    level    :------------------------------------------------------
                Item               :             :             :        :        :        :          Months           
                                   :             :             :        :        :        :---------------------------
                                   :             :             :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :   percent       percent      -------- 1,000 -------        ---- number ----      
                                   :                                                                                  
Eggs in incubators ................:     2.4           4.2        432       1      2,201        17             7      
                                   :                                                                                  
Poults hatched ....................:     1.7           3.0        199       0      1,913        12            11      
                                   :                                                                                  
Net poult placements ..............:     2.4           4.1        327       0      1,884        18             5      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National 
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may 
be sent to nass@usda.gov

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 692-0069

Tony Dorn, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .................. (202) 690-3223
   Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter......................................... (202) 720-0585
   Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .. (202) 720-4751
   Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ........... (202) 720-8784
   Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ........................... (202) 720-3244 
   Derron Martin - Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products............................ (202) 690-3237
   Adam Peters - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies .................................. (202) 690-4870
   Autumn Stone - Layers, Eggs .............................................. (202) 690-3676
   Takiyah Walker - Broiler Hatchery......................................... (202) 720-6147

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